How to Do a Linear Regression in Excel

What this does

Regression fits a straight-line relationship between one outcome column and one or more predictor columns. The ToolPak produces a full report — coefficients, their standard errors, t statistics and p-values, R squared, and the F test for the model as a whole. LINEST returns the same numbers as a spilled array without the report layout. Both require the predictor columns to be contiguous. The same idea underpins a lot of everyday Excel work, so the few minutes spent getting it right here pay back across every sheet you build afterwards. Treat it as a pattern, not a one-off, and it stops being something you look up and starts being something you reach for. The difference between a quick fix and a sheet you can trust is the extra minute you spend validating “do a linear regression in excel”. Start on a copy or a tiny sample, keep the affected cells visible, and compare the result with the tool above before you touch the real workbook. When a formula is involved, keep the inputs labelled beside it, reference cells instead of typing values, and apply number formatting only after the result checks out. The point is a visual that makes the number obvious at a glance, but the practical win is that someone else can open the file and understand what happened without asking you.

A worked example

Revenue in B2:B50 is modelled on ad spend in C and site visits in D. Data ▸ Data Analysis ▸ Regression with Input Y Range B1:B50, Input X Range C1:D50 and Labels ticked returns R Square 0.83, an ad-spend coefficient of 2.4 with a p-value of 0.004, and a visits coefficient whose p-value of 0.31 says it adds nothing once spend is in the model. The ToolPak output is the difference between an estimated relationship and a quantified one — the p-values are what stop a coincidence being presented as a driver. One habit worth forming early: name the cells that hold your inputs, so the formula reads in plain language instead of a string of cell addresses. A reviewer — or you in three months — can then follow the logic without decoding what B7 and D2 were supposed to mean, which is most of what makes a sheet maintainable.

In Google Sheets

Everything above works in Google Sheets too. Excel and Sheets share the formula syntax used here; only the surrounding menus are arranged differently. That portability is deliberate — learn it once and it follows you between the two tools and across Windows and Mac. The aim was to get you unstuck fast and leave you a little more capable than a copy-paste would. The answer is at the top, the tool proves it, and the detail above shows why it holds — so the next time a colleague asks, you can answer without reaching for search. The short version of “do a linear regression in excel”: the answer is at the top of this page, the tool proves it on your own numbers, and the sections above explain why it holds so the next variation does not stump you. Excel rewards people who reference cells instead of typing values and who keep inputs separate from formulas, because that is what makes a result you can audit months later. Build it once, deliberately, with the live tool as a check, and you convert a one-off lookup into a reusable skill — which is the whole point of learning the why and not just the what.

Common mistakes

• Selecting non-adjacent predictor columns; both the ToolPak and LINEST need one contiguous X block, so copy the columns together first.
• Reading LINEST's coefficients left to right in column order — it returns them in reverse, with the last predictor first.
• Reporting a high R squared as proof of causation when the predictors were chosen after seeing the data.
• Leaving strongly correlated predictors in the model, which makes individual coefficients unstable even when the fit looks excellent.

Frequently asked questions